Recession in 2008? So says the BBC… but why?

Over the Christmas and new year period the BBC was full of cheerful news about the stock market going down, house prices going down and terrible sales figures from the shops. In short, all gloom and doom. Then for the first time on the 2nd of January 2008 using nice big words, Recession in 2008, filled the TV screen. The R word was finally used on the BBC breakfast show.

Exactly what is going on at the BBC? If you dent consumer confidence, by definition, you will end up with a recession.

Hearing all of this negativity made me want to find out what was going on in our world of the internet. After a bit of Googling I came across the Netcraft website and this chart.

Source: http://news.netcraft.com/

So in a recession curves go down, right? The above curve is doing what? The curve is going up and very steeply. Almost vertical. This looks like a good positive curve to me. My basic understanding is that  people are registering more and more domains and this is then later followed by more and more websites.

More facts, this time from the UK government statistics websites.

In 2002
E-commerce is likely to have a huge impact on the way we do business. It has the potential to lead to dramatic growth in trade, increase markets, improve efficiency and effectiveness and transform business processes. In recognition of its significance in the future performance of the economy, the UK Government set itself the target of becoming ‘the best environment in the world to do e-commerce.’
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=177&Pos=3&ColRank=2&Rank=192

Internet sales
The value of Internet sales by UK businesses rose to £130.4bn in 2006, an increase of 29.1 per cent on the 2005 figure of £101bn, according to estimates from the latest annual e-commerce survey published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/ecom1107.pdf

Uk biz
70 per cent of businesses had a website in 2006, a rise of just over 1 per cent since 2005.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/ecommerce_report_2006.pdf
We found this statistic very interesting. By implication 30% businesses do not have websites. After a bit more Googling we found these numbers:

UK 2006 statistics
Businesses in the UK = 4.5 million
Business start ups / per annum UK: 180 000 (South East: 28,000)
http://stats.berr.gov.uk/ed/sme/
So if you do the maths, there should be approximately 225 000 new websites in the UK in 2008.

2005
For many businesses, websites have become an essential means of communicating with customers. In 2005, 70 per cent of businesses reported having a website, while one in three (31 per cent) had an intranet, and 8 per cent had an extranet.

An increasing number of businesses are selling and buying products or services over the Internet. The proportion of businesses that sold over the Internet doubled between 2002 and 2005, from 7 to 15 per cent. There is a clear divide between small and large businesses, as nearly four in ten businesses with 1,000 or more employees sold over the Internet in 2005, compared with slightly over one in ten of the smaller businesses, with between 10 and 49 employees.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1713

e-Commerce in the EU
e-Commerce has also increased among business enterprises across the EU. In 2006, the UK had the second highest proportion of enterprises receiving orders over the Internet or non-Internet information and communication technology (ICT) in the EU, at 30 per cent. Denmark had the highest proportion, at 34 per cent, which was well above the EU-25 average of 14 per cent.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1715

Imre opinion?
Very interesting all of this. For me it all points one way and that is upwards. More businesses will go online, more people will buy online, more websites will be required, more expertise will be required¦.

Recession is possibly the wrong word here, we are going through a correction or perhaps a transformation. Economic resources are being moved from one sector of the economy to another. There is much potential, the opportunities are there and the writing is on the wall.

The R word brings to mind all of the following:

• - people being thrown out of their houses
• - factories being closed down
• - unemployment rising
• - ordinary masses having a tough time.

Why is the BBC so happy to look for the misery? Is there another agenda?

Time to forget the “R” word, and if you are one of the predicted 225,000 who need a new website, please do call us on 01494 819900. Now is the time to build for the future!